Why You Should Think Twice Before Buying a New Car

If you’ve been out lately kicking tires, thinking of owning a shiny new car, chock full of the latest innovations like rear cameras, and voice activated commands—think again.

Buying a new car now, some say, would be worse than buying a new horse just as the first Fords drove off the assembly line, and worse by far than buying a three year old iphone.

Here’s why:

There is a huge cultural shift in all areas of the technological world, and it is led by the car. We know it is happening by the quickening of news and predictions about it, but we don’t know how fast, or in what form, the changes will come.

Change is always preceded by hype, and there is an enormous amount of hype right now about change in the automotive world. While its difficult to sort it all out, here are some major trends:

The rise of the electric car:

We hear that the gas-powered car is on its way out, that cars powered by electricity will account for 35% of all cars in the next two decades. Here is an article (with an amazing chart!) about electric vehicles , by Tom Randall, writing for Bloomberg:

“In the next few years, Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. Other car makers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models. By 2020, some of these will cost less and perform better than their gasoline counterparts. The aim would be to match the success of Tesla’s Model S, which now outsells its competitors in the large luxury class in the U.S.”

The growing popularity of car sharing:

We are being told that car sharing will soon make car ownership a thing of the past. Fleets like Uber, Lyft and Car2Go are already here, reports say:

More than 80,000 car-sharing vehicles were operating in urban centers around the world in 2015. It’s a rapidly escalating phenomena, since Millennials are putting off or just not buying cars.

The advancement of the self-driving car:

And, if that’s not enough, we are alerted to the fact that the self-driving car is already in use in several areas of the world. In a series of articles exploring the future of transport, the Economist Intelligence Unit writes:

“Self-driving cars are expected to be on the roads more quickly than was anticipated just a few years ago, and in greater numbers. Forecasts vary, as they always do, but the emerging consensus among the industry’s larger players is that, at minimum, fleet vehicles—trucks, taxis, and buses—that can take control and make independent decisions, i.e. SEA level 3, will be in use by the end of this decade. ”

And this, from the Globe and Mail:

“And while enhancing mobility and safety as a benefit to society, the consequence of mass acceptance of AVs may mean fewer jobs for truck, bus and taxi drivers, personal-injury lawyers, insurers, automotive repair technicians and others.

Nonetheless, the technology is coming, sure as snow in winter.”

And now, for the big question:

The world of car ownership is on shifting ground, that’s clear. The big question—the one that keeps us all on the edges of our seats—is the question of the pace of this shift.

Some researchers, like Jack Hitt, at the Smithsonian, think change will be slow:

“And this is how the cultural shift happens. It’s natural to think of innovation as happening in some instantaneous transformative way, but the transition to our own future will likelier involve a great mix of evolving technologies—a transportation landscape populated with smart cars, autonomous cars and, muses Fernando Suarez, a professor at Northeastern University’s School of Business, “maybe flying cars for some longer distances, and much better public transportation, and a dedicated bike lane, too.” The revolution will come, but you may not notice it until it’s happened.”

And some think that this time it’s different, that change will come rapidly. Here’s what David Galland of Garret/Galland Research says:

“… the technology adoption cycle has been steadily compressing. While it took approximately 50 years for electricity to be adopted by 60% of US households, it took cell phones only about 10 years and smartphones only about five years to reach the same penetration.”

I agree with David Galland, that technological changes are coming faster than ever before. Innovations in the automotive field are already in play, and the hype about them seems to be escalating. I’m not completely sold though, that the automotive shift will affect our age group. Just in case, though, I’ll keep repairing my old Nissan, rather than turning it in for a new one!