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Predictions about your longevity—do you really want to know?

Many people are fascinated with predictions of their longevity. And since scientists are always peeking under the hood to see how things tick, it’s natural for them to gravitate to the subject of aging as well.

Recently, a team of scientists at the Salk Institute, on their way to discover why some people have progenia, began to discuss the broader aspects of aging. Progenia, a condition in which some people age at a faster rate than others, has long intrigued scientists, who saw it as a gateway to making other discoveries about aging.

Longevity in humans has been the focus of science for several years, with an endless stream of studies emerging recently, analyzing the physical condition of older people, the resilience of their cells, the effects of life style on their health, all with the intention of predicting how long they are likely to live.

Fantastic stories of scientific breakthroughs in the study of longevity  don’t impress the way they used to, but this appears to be a promising one. In this case, the Salk team used machine-learning to develop an algorithm which can make predictions much more accurate.

The study, published December 19, in Genome Biology, reports that the scientists analyzed skin cells ranging from the very young to the very old, looking for molecular signatures that they use for their  predictions. What also makes this study different is the size of the population engaged—much larger and more inclusive of age ranges than ever attempted before.

How did they do it?

The researchers took non-invasive biopsies of a type of skin cell called dermal fibroblasts, cells which are more likely to contain these unique signatures of aging, according to earlier studies. Instead of turning over every few weeks or months, as other skin cells do, they stay with us our entire lives.

The scientists explain that they are trying to arrive at a better understanding of the biological processes of aging, which could eventually help to address health conditions that are more common in old age, such as heart disease and dementia.

One of the intentions of this study is to extend the findings of the fibroblasts to aging in other types of cells, eventually allowing scientists to be able to use these unique signatures to intervene in certain age-related conditions. Applying these findings would make a huge impact on the health of older people, since aging is a factor in so many diseases, including Alzheimer’s and other neurological problems. Targeting the common diseases of aging could yield useful results, I would think.

If the findings are validated, doctors could use this type of analysis to determine when to begin screening their patients for age-related conditions and to advise them about healthy lifestyle and medical choices.

Making it practical

Well, that counts for something. It takes this experiment out of the arena of sensational guessing games, into something more meaningful and practical.

The intentions are ambitious and far-reaching. Expanding on the study, co-senior author Saket Navlakha, an assistant professor in Salk’s Integrative Biology Laboratory explains:

“This experiment was designed to determine whether there are molecular signatures of aging across the entire range of the human life span. We want to develop algorithms that can predict healthy aging and nonhealthy aging, and try to find the differences.”

Of course, the study is only the beginning. More research needs to be done before any practical applications could be developed.

And there are the ethical considerations

And as with many scientific discoveries, this comes with an ethical question: is it a good thing to give people this information?

It’s fascinating research, but really, do you want to know? I’ve been interested in longevity predictions for some time, what affects how long we will live, and whether or not we can alter life style to improve our chances for a long life.

But I don’t know that it is such a good idea for an entire society to have access to such information. Can you imagine some of the implications? Insurance companies would have a sliding scale according to the assumed date of your demise, dating sites, along with your astrological signs and music preferences would demand to know your projected longevity. Ugh, the list goes on.

In all seriousness, though, it can be very illuminating information for scientists and the medical world.

As first author of the study, Jason Fleischer, a Salk postdoctoral fellow says:

“The fact that our system can predict this kind of aging shows that this model is starting to get at the true underpinnings of biological age,”

What wise people say:

The secret to longevity is to keep breathing.
Sophie Tucker

A long life may not be good enough, but a good life is long enough.
Benjamin Franklin

A human being would certainly not grow to be seventy or eighty years old if this longevity had no meaning for the species. The afternoon of human life must also have a significance of its own and cannot be merely a pitiful appendage to lifes’ morning.
Carl Jung

The secret to a long life is to stay busy, get plenty of exercise and don’t drink too much. Then again, don’t drink too little.
Herman Smith-Johannsen

30 thoughts on “Predictions about your longevity—do you really want to know?”

  1. What an an interesting topic. My mind ran to the possible neg. ways the information could be used. Rich people making adjustments and leaving the rest of us to age and thus making ageism and poverty even more marginalized. I wondered why I ‘went there’ and realized it was my own concerns centering around the old question…if you could know when you would die, would you want to? Leaving all that aside and concentrating on the actual science…science is a good thing. How we use whatever information we glean will always be the big issues. I say learn all we can and do the best we can to live ethically. We must not stop learning and delving deeper into the mysteries of life. Unfortunately, we cannot stop money and profit from attempting to take over what others discover. We cannot know what the information will mean and how it might be useful. Maybe future generations can understand what ‘modifications’ we might need to live elsewhere after we finish ruining the planet we are on. iCouriosity may have killed the cat but it is the springboard to all learning.

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      I value science as well, and realize that the curiosity of scientists is “the springboard to all learning”, and of course, will greatly impact our future. I didn’t spend much time thinking of ways the predictions about longevity can be misused, but the list, I’m sure, is endless! You have some good ideas here, Alexandra. Thanks!

  2. Hi, Diane – This is a fascinating topic. I look forward to checking out the links that you have included. Like so many others, my wish has been to live a meaningful life, regardless of the length. Still, I try to focus on a lifestyle that will increase my years, not decrease them. Thanks for sharing this.

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      I think lifestyle is the biggest factor contributing to a long life—barring ,of course, genetic diseases, over which we don’t have much control. I covered this topic in an article I wrote last year (one of the links I included), but I couldn’t resist adding to it—it obviously fascinates me! Thanks, Donna!

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      Hahaha. Funny girl, Jean! I can’t say the same, since I’ve never talked a lot—they tell me I verge on being an introvert. But hey, it takes all kinds!

  3. What interesting and valuable research. I’m not sure I’d like to know too much about my eventual demise but it would be great if my doctor had that info and was able to – without my knowing the specifics – preform some preventative maintenance on me 🙂 Who I definitely don’t want to have that info are insurance companies. Despite all the scientific breakthroughs on the subject of aging, we as individuals have tremendous influence over our health and longevity by making good choices every day (even, as Sophie Tucker said, to keep breathing).

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      I don’t know if doctors would want that very sensitive information—they might feel it would compromise them! I wholehearted agree, Janis, that the ball is in our court when it comes to determining our lifestyle. Many people don’t realize what power they have over their health, though, until they are sick, and it may be too late.

  4. Methinks that Sophie T., was right, and I agree totally with Herman; Ben and Carl are right too, but take life to seriously,

    If it helps to stamp out the “Big A’, (I don’t mean the big Apple) I think the study is good; but I can’t see the point other than as you say Insurers getting in for a means to make even bigger profits;

    But then at my age with one foot in the grave the other on a banana skin waiting for someone to give me a shove, it’s just a matter of enjoying each day as it comes – if I wake up that is.

    I’ve never felt old in the head/mind. just the body which doesn’t take any instructions from me anyway

    A bit like the War Office I suppose 😈 :bear: 😀

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      I ‘d rather not know the likely date of my demise either, Bear, but it does make for some interesting speculation, don’t you think? And I certainly subscribe to the philosophy of enjoying each day as it comes. But that doesn’t mean you can break all of the health related rules—and I suspect the War Office would agree with me!

      1. She supports everything I’m against 👿
        Death comes to us soon enough; not sure whether I’ll be angry or sad but probably mad, ( doing something I enjoy) when it comes a’knocking on my door 😛

        1. Still the Lucky Few

          I haven’t given it a lot of thought, Bear.I hope I’m not being delusional, but I’m focusing on longevity instead!

  5. Having spent the day in the ER with my 93 yo mother, whose body is relatively healthy but at her age, it’s like a car with 250K miles on it, I think longevity is overrated. I used to want to live a long, long time. Now I think dying at a slightly younger age might be okay, too. Ben Franklin’s quote is my belief.

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      Hi Lynne, nice to hear from you! My mother lived to age 94, having spent the last few years suffering from Alzheimers—not fun for anyone! She was definitely ready to go, and had she been able to make the proper arrangements, would certainly have chosen another route. She was very aware about the stress of that disease on the entire family. I know it’s hard to stay the course, and many times, it just seems there is no relief. Stay well, Lynne.

  6. No, I don’t want to know about the longevity part of it. It would help to know the exact time and cause though! I strongly believe in the dictum that the good die young and having lived well past the proverbial three score and ten I am ready to go, not that I am not good, but, dread getting infirm and giving trouble to others before I die.

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      People who care about the loved ones in their lives worry about this, just as you do, Rummuser. But we really don’t have any control over it, unless we have been able to make arrangements through the “right to die” process—which is not legal in some countries. But that is a different issue, which I haven’t researched yet—perhaps someday I’ll write about it. Thank you for bringing this up. It’s a subject studiously avoided in my culture!

  7. I LOVE the quotes you use at the end, and I agree with all of them. Long life means nothing if it means we’re just existing, not being a productive part of the world. My mom is 95 in a month, but her memory is gone, and just about everything else that made her a special human being. People say, “how wonderful” when they hear how old she is. I don’t think so, and I know she doesn’t either. ;-0

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      Hi, Pam! I’m a little late answering—apologies! Your comment about your mother hits home, since I had a similar experience. My mother dies at the age of 94, after 8 years living with Alzheimers’. At that point, as much as we loved her, we were ready to let her go. It sounds as it you feel the same. And I agree that, in order to have a meaningful life, we need to be contributing something—writing fits beautifully into that!

      1. Yes, yes, that’s exactly how it is for us. My brother and I feel that our mom is in a living hell. We’re hoping she’ll be released soon. And YES, writing is a great way to contribute to this beautiful, frustrating, amazing, unexplainable world of ours. <3

  8. I can think of nothing worse than knowing my future. What if I don’t like what is predicted? I’ll stick with blissful ignorance, thanks!

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      Many people feel as you do. But still, I’d like a clue, at least, especially when it comes to my health.

  9. I’m nearing my 80th birthday, but never considered myself to be old until I left hospital recently, after being treated for a heart condition, and read the discharge notification which listed my cardiologist’s speciality as “HEALTH CARE OF OLDER PEOPLE”…. 🙂

    1. Still the Lucky Few

      It seems as if that number is a signal to put us in a box and label us ‘truly old”. This didn’t happen when we turned 50, or even 75…it’s just a number, after all. I just keep on keeping on—it confuses them!

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